Ginger prices fell significantly more than expected and will remain at risk during 2012

Ginger is an indispensable condiment and it is a commonly used bulk medicine. Last year, ginger prices ran all the way and once surged to the national average price of 14 yuan/kg. The medicinal ginger also broke the high point of 50 yuan/kg.

At present, it is a matter of course that the price of ginger drops after Xin Jiang is listed. However, the recent rate of decline has clearly exceeded people's expectations. Some major producers of ginger have fallen more than 90%, and the purchase price of producing areas has even fallen below the low of RMB 1 per kilogram. . In fact, since the spring of this year, the price of ginger has been declining. Currently, the retail price of Fresh Ginger market is mostly maintained at 3-4 yuan/kg.

Expanded planting area

Last year, ginger prices soared, making Jiangnong very profitable, which promoted the participation of new ginger farmers. Due to the blind expansion of the planting area, the total ginger output this year increased significantly. The current price plummet of ginger is exactly the change of supply and demand in the market. reflect. It is understood that this year, Henan, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan and other major producing areas have increased ginger planting area, is expected to reach more than 6.8 million tons of output, with the new ginger harvest together, will inevitably lead to price declines.

Reduced sales

Since last year's ginger prices were at a rare high level, which has inhibited consumption to a certain extent, and local stocks have been digested slowly, this year, the stock of ginger before the IPO is still very large; in addition, since last year, China has restricted exports of ginger to the United States. Reduce nearly 30%. Due to the decrease in sales volume in the terminal market, the inventories in various regions were digested slowly, and the inventory was abundant. The ginger market exceeded supply and laid the foundation for the fall in prices.

Rising space is limited

In recent years, the price of ginger in the domestic market has been relatively stable relative to other agricultural products, but since the beginning of last year, the prices have risen rapidly and reached a peak in August and September. However, this is not due to production cuts, but it is caused by vicious speculation and deliberate stocking. In order to curb high-priced ginger, the state has increased supervision of the agricultural product market and severely curbed vicious speculation and hoarding. Speculators have withdrawn hot money and played a positive role in stabilizing the ginger market and promoting rational price return.

In view of the market trend of ginger market in the market, industry insiders believe that due to the high price of ginger in the previous year, consumption was largely suppressed. Whether it is processing, export or retail market, it has shrunk to a certain extent, so there is little room for the market to rise again. . According to experience, every year before the Spring Festival by the festival demand, the price of ginger may usher in a wave of rising prices, but because the current price of ginger is too low, even if the market goes up again, blindly get together and produce ginger farmers may not be able to avoid the fate of losses. It is expected that the overall performance of the ginger market will continue to be adequate next year, demand will be stable, and prices will not be too high. Therefore, according to the cycle analysis, ginger planting in 2012 is still the same as this year, and it is in a period of risk. Jiang Nong should think twice.