If you completely eliminate cancer, how many years can people live?

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If you completely eliminate cancer, how many years can people live?

September 20, 2016 Source: Pineapple Factor

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  If scientists succeed, eradicating cancer, how much can human life increase?
 
This is a very interesting question. I believe that everyone hopes that cancer will disappear from the world, but if you only talk about extending your life, how good is it to overcome cancer?
 
To answer this question carefully requires a lot of statistics, but we can be lazy and simplify the problem as: "What is the average life expectancy (Z) of people who died not because of cancer?"
 
To eliminate cancer, everyone's life expectancy should be close to Z.
 
This data is not directly identifiable, but we can roughly calculate three data: the average life expectancy (T), the proportion of people who died due to cancer (B), and the average life expectancy due to cancer (C).
 
The formula should be: C*B+Z*(1-B)=T
 
Take the Americans in 2013 as an example, T=78.5 years old, B=22.5%, C=72.
 
Column formula:
 
Everyone is slowly calculating that this equation is the difficulty of the US graduate entrance exam!
 
What, Chinese kindergarten children have already finished! ?
X=80.4
In other words, if there is no cancer in the United States, the average life expectancy will increase from 78.5 to 80.4.
Only 1.9 years! ?
This result surprised me a bit. Many things really can't believe in your instincts.
 
(two)
 
Obviously, the three data of T, B, and C in different regions will be different, and the results will be different. For example, California, USA, T=79.9, B=23.3%, C=70.5. Calculated, X = 82.8. Non-cancer populations can live 82.8-79.9=2.9 years.
 
It's a little longer, but obviously not as much as everyone thinks.
 
I don't find some data in China, so I can't count it, but I don't expect the final increase in life.
 
In fact, it is also correct to think about it, because there are too many human killers, cancer accounts for less than a quarter, and the natural impact will not be great. If the college entrance examination language gives you a perfect score, will you be able to go to the good school next door to Peking University?
 
Is it worthwhile for the scientist to fight against cancer for a lifetime?
 
I think it is still worth it.
 
Although the average life expectancy is limited, the situation is different if you look at the patient's perspective. Conquering cancer, the benefits to them are very obvious.
 
For American patients, it can be extended by 80.4-72 = 8.4 years.
 
For California patients, it can be extended by 82.8-70.5=12.3 years.
 
The benefits are obviously huge.
 
This is not a psychological value for patients and their families. Knowing that there is medicine available, there is hope, just this is priceless.
 
Therefore, scientists, doctors, and society as a whole have to continue to die with cancer, with the goal of turning it into a chronic disease that can be controlled.
 
Not to improve the average life expectancy of humans, but to improve the life expectancy and quality of life of patients.
 
(three)
 
To overcome different cancers, the impact on life is different.
 
In the United States, the average age of death for prostate cancer patients is 80 years old, which is longer than the average life expectancy of the whole population! Prostate cancer also needs to continue research, but the elimination of prostate cancer will not help to extend the average life expectancy, because there are many other killers.
 
On the contrary, the average age of patients with soft tissue tumors is only 59 years old. If you can control it, the life extension will be 80.4-59=21.4 years!
 
Control bone cancer, 21.4 years, control brain tumors, 16.4 years.
 
These types of cancer, which significantly affect middle-aged and even young patients, are a top priority for cancer research and new drug development.
 
Of course, there is also childhood cancer that I care about the most.
 
According to the previous algorithm, curing a 10-year-old child with cancer may bring a life of 70.4 years! Even if you take 60% off this time, there will be 42 years.
 
Life is equivalent, and it cannot be said that children's lives are more precious than adults. But at least, childhood cancer should receive equal attention.
 
In the latest US anti-cancer moon landing program, childhood cancer is a top priority and will invest a lot of resources. In China, childhood cancer is still a marginal discipline, and the government and society support a glass of water. Lack of research funding, pediatrician treatment and training opportunities are not as good as other specialties. Compared with developed regions in Europe and America, the gap between basic and clinical research has become larger and larger.
 
Are everyone sitting and waiting for American Lei Feng to save Chinese children?
 
(four)
 
Just killing cancer alone can't make us live too long. Is there any other way?
 
Comparing Japan and the United States, there are probably a few.
 
Japan's current life expectancy is 83.1, the world's first. In Japan, where there is cancer, the average life expectancy is far more than the fantasy, the United States without cancer. What's more, the average medical cost for Americans is more than three times that of Japan, so it is not just a question of money.
 
Why?
 
One of the main reasons is the difference in lifestyle.
 
As is well known, in addition to the economic world, the United States is also rich in junk food and fat people. According to my mother's words, if you don't come to the US, you don't know that your ass can grow so big.
 
A variety of chronic diseases caused by obesity consume a lot of medical resources in the United States. It is no exaggeration to say that the average life expectancy of Americans is hard to pile up.
 
How long it takes to live is important and how important it is to live. More important than life is Health Adjusted Life Expectancy: a healthy, independent, high quality life.
 
In 2015, the average American life expectancy was 79.3, but the healthy life expectancy was only 69.1. In other words, the average American has more than 10 years, and the health situation is very bad. Some people are alive, but they are already dead.
 
But not everyone is like this.
When you come to the United States, you will find an interesting phenomenon: although there are fat people everywhere, the people who visit the "Whole Foods" supermarket have a very low proportion of fat people. No matter what age, they are mostly well-proportioned and rejuvenated people.
What is “Whole Food”? A supermarket selling organic food. There is a word inside: expensive!
Are you sure to eat expensive organic food? No. In fact, the root cause is that these people pay attention to their living habits. Eating organic food is only part of it. It has been investigated that people who go to wholefood to buy food have a significantly longer average exercise time than the social average. I recently found that many people wear "smart watches" and monitor their daily activities.
 
To live long, a healthy lifestyle is king. Including healthy eating habits, quitting smoking and drinking, active exercise, and so on.
This is actually not related to organic food, and has nothing to do with money. Eat less junk food, don't smoke, don't drink alcohol, exercise more, and save more money.
The key is education and awareness.
The average life expectancy of Chinese people is 76.1, and the healthy life expectancy is 68.5, which is significantly lower than that of Japan. This is related to the gap between the rich and the poor in China and the backward medical conditions in rural areas. However, most of the well-educated middle class who read the pineapple article did not have any excuse for not aligning with the Japanese average.

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