Although the white wine stocks should not be "cheap cup"

The liquor industry can be described as “a few happy families”: this year, the growth rate of high-end liquor sales reached the lowest level in 10 years, and there was a big withdrawal of dealers from Wuliangye. On the other hand, the mainland beverage industry giant Wahaha announced a high profile into the liquor industry yesterday. . The reporter sorted out the financial data for the first three quarters of this year and found that the main reason for the sharp drop in revenue growth in the liquor industry was the sharp drop in sales. From the perspective of the capital market performance, although the current liquor stocks are cheap, investors should not “craze”!

Yesterday, Wahaha launched a Maotai-flavored liquor of origin in Guizhou Maotai Town and officially announced its entry into the liquor industry. Zong Qinghou, chairman and general manager of Hangzhou Wahaha Group, stated that the current liquor industry in China has entered a low point of development, and the revitalization of the industry requires strong companies to join. Why did you choose Maotai-flavored liquor to start the game? Zong Qinghou introduced that thousands of small wineries in Moutai Town used the same raw materials as Maotai Distillery to make Maotai-flavored liquor, but due to limited funds and scale, they did not have the ability to build a national brand. The capacity, which makes the current Maotai-flavor liquor market share. With the opportunity to integrate local resources and develop brands, Wahaha decided to enter relevant markets.

Wahaha marches into the liquor industry against the trend. At the same time, the days of high-end liquors are not over yet. It has been learned that many Wuliangye distributors have chosen to withdraw from Beijing due to falling cash flow, inverting prices, and repeatedly limiting the sales floor price, and most of them are still strong dealers. “The decline in sales, slower payment, and the need to make advance payments to the liquor companies have made the funding gap suddenly larger.” An industry observer said that dealers have indeed suffered from the declining demand of the industry as a whole. Big impact, at this time is very test its resistance to risk and cash flow strength.

"After being influenced by multiple factors, such as strict wind-saving practices, restrictions on the use of public spending by Sangong, and the economic environment, high-end liquor has experienced a phenomenon of "mass and price declines," and the cold winter has not yet passed," said industry observers.

High-end liquor sales growth rate of 10 years, the lowest central paper "eight regulations", after the promotion of thrift, 13 liquor listed companies, there are 11 negative growth in performance, of which, in the high-end liquor, Wuliangye net profit growth for the first time in 10 years Negative growth.

“Liquor production is really bad, and when it can be improved, it is difficult to make it clear.” An analyst with a brokerage firm who has long been concerned about the liquor industry told reporters. Compared with the past years of changes in the performance of liquor listed companies, it has been found that the profitability of liquor companies this year has been the worst in almost a decade. In the third quarter of this year, Wuliangye’s net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was RMB 1,313 million, a year-on-year decrease of 52.36%. This is the first negative growth in the company's third quarterly report since 2003. In the first three quarters of this year, Kweichow Moutai’s net profit reached 11.07 billion yuan, but its growth rate was only 6.24% year-on-year, the lowest increase since its listing.

In addition to high-end liquor, the second-tier liquor sales of mass consumption also suffered from Waterloo. In the first three quarters of alcoholic drinks, the net profit attributable to the shareholders of the listed company was only 20,346,500 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 95.56%.

Large increase in inventory of pre-collected wine enterprises. The financial data of 13 liquor companies in the A-shares found that in the first three quarters of 2013, the accumulated inventory of liquor listed companies was 35.217 billion yuan, an increase of 23.34% from 28.552 billion yuan in the same period of last year. Among them, Kweichow Moutai's inventory at the end of September this year exceeded 10 billion for the first time, reaching 10.86 billion yuan, an increase of 35.49%. In addition, the year-on-year increase in the inventory of Yanghe’s shares and Gujing Distillery also increased by 59.94% and 57.61%, respectively. “The rise in liquor inventories indicates that channel sales have been significantly affected,” analysts at a fund company told reporters.

Another concern of the market is the decline in "advance receipt". The data shows that as of the end of the third quarter, the accumulated advance receipts of the above-mentioned liquor enterprises were 7.305 billion yuan, compared to 15.626 billion yuan in the same period last year. Among them, Kweichow Moutai advances declined from 3.747 billion yuan in the third quarter of 2012 to 1.942 billion yuan in the same period of this year, a decrease of 48.17%, Wuliangye even dropped 79.89%.

"The decrease in advance receipts indicates that the scale of early payment for buying wine is falling, reflecting that dealers or consumers are not optimistic about future prices," said the fund analyst.

After the timing of investing in liquor has not changed in the market environment, liquor stocks have also plunged, and there have been a few stocks. After the initial adjustment, the overall valuation of the liquor stocks has been abandoned from the "noble" in the A shares to "cabbage." However, there are institutional sources who say that even though liquor stocks are currently cheap, they are not a good time to stock up. The reporter also saw from the three quarterly reports that institutions including funds, etc. have withdrawn from liquor stocks.

As of yesterday's close, Wuliangye, Kweichow Moutai, Yanghe shares, Gujing Distillery and other stock prices have fallen sharply this year, of which, in accordance with the pre-recapitalization calculation, Kweichow Moutai decreased by 31%, and Shanxi Fenjiu fell by nearly 60%. Valuation also escalated. For example, Wuliangye's latest price-to-earnings ratio is only 6.44 times. Yanghe shares and Luzhou Laojiao are only 7.34 times and 7.78 times. Huaan Securities analysts believe that the dynamic PE of the liquor industry in 2013 was only 8.52 times, which was in a low position. However, liquor stocks still do not have good investment opportunities.

“The liquor industry is still in a period of deep adjustment. From the disclosure of the three quarterly reports and performance forecast, only Moutai’s performance is better, mainly due to the policy adjustment of liberalizing its distribution rights, while the decline in the output of other liquors has increased. Strengthen waist products, the future of mid-range wine competition will be more intense, the industry demand is still no significant improvement, liquor long-term prosperity is no doubt down, the basis for short-term recovery is not yet available.” Guodu Securities industry analyst Lu Shan believes.