In July, the CPI exceeded 3% to 3.3%, of which 2.2% came from hikes, and only 1.1% came from new price increase factors. Among them, food prices rose the most, reaching 6.8%, and food prices. The contribution of the increase exceeds 75%.
The increase in weather factors and international food prices is just the trigger for the rise in the prices of agricultural products. The deeper reason is the rise in real estate prices. House price-driven inflation should be a kind of "cost-driven inflation."
The rise in house prices was first transmitted to wages. Housing consumption is an important part of the current labor cost, and rising house prices will of course lead to higher wages, which is one of the important reasons for rising wage prices in recent years. Only different levels and different economic entities have different ways of raising wages due to rising house prices. For civil servants, house prices have risen with the increase in housing subsidies. Some special civil servants enjoy affordable “economical housing†in disguised forms of rising wages; doctors, teachers, and other groups are also victims of high house prices, but because of their own The advantages of careers gradually shift their burdens to other vulnerable groups in the society, and increase their “wage†by collecting “red envelopes†and various expenses. Business owners passively increase wages under the pressure of maintaining social stability.
Since 2005, the increase in the wages of ordinary workers is indeed a fact. The average wage rise should be more than double. The wages of urban residents have also been rising year by year through the method of adjusting wages. The increase during this period is similar to that of ordinary migrant workers. It should be noted that, from 1995 to 2005, China’s wages (especially the wages of ordinary workers) did not rise substantially, which was consistent with the fact that house prices did not rise during the period. It can be seen that there is a highly positive correlation between wages and house prices.
Driven by rising wages, the price increase of agricultural products should be a matter of course, because the increase in workers' wages means that the opportunity cost of farming is increasing. The increase in the cost of agricultural labor will certainly stimulate the price of agricultural products.
The rise in house prices is only one of the important factors for rising food prices, and it is not the only deciding factor. It should be noted that the rise in housing prices coincides with the "Lewis Turning Point" of the labor force, which easily leads to a rapid increase in labor wages.
It makes more sense to analyze domestic price changes in combination with international markets. In the context of the global financial crisis, the occurrence of deflation in the United States and Europe in the next few years should be a high-probability event. Bear market prices in the international market should be expected, which will play a certain role in domestic price increases. Inhibition. From the trend of the PPI of industrial products since May 2010, this trend has been shown. Unlike the CPI, the PPI is declining month by month. If China's price rises substantially under the promotion of wage costs, it may reverse the appreciation of the renminbi and cause the asset price bubble to burst.
From the long-term trend, the rise in housing prices will also lead to a significant drop in the birth rate, which will reduce the supply of labor, and thus make the population ageing. As of 2010, the proportion of the average old-age population in the European Union (the proportion of elderly people over the age of 65 to the total population) has reached 16.7%. Japan's population structure began to turn around in 1990 and entered a period of rapid aging. The most important reason is that industrialization and urbanization have led to a significant increase in the cost of raising children, making people unwilling to support their children, and the trend of “declining children†in society. The changes in China's demographic structure are related to the government's conscious control of population growth. However, with the rapid rise in housing prices, urban and rural residents have begun to show a tendency toward “low birthrateâ€. This is a major impact of high prices on social development.
From the ratio of house prices to income, if housing prices do not fall, the wage increase in the future will be alarming (at least more than 1 times), even in non-central cities. Unless the government popularizes cheap affordable housing on a large scale, housing-driven inflation will continue for a long time.
The increase in weather factors and international food prices is just the trigger for the rise in the prices of agricultural products. The deeper reason is the rise in real estate prices. House price-driven inflation should be a kind of "cost-driven inflation."
The rise in house prices was first transmitted to wages. Housing consumption is an important part of the current labor cost, and rising house prices will of course lead to higher wages, which is one of the important reasons for rising wage prices in recent years. Only different levels and different economic entities have different ways of raising wages due to rising house prices. For civil servants, house prices have risen with the increase in housing subsidies. Some special civil servants enjoy affordable “economical housing†in disguised forms of rising wages; doctors, teachers, and other groups are also victims of high house prices, but because of their own The advantages of careers gradually shift their burdens to other vulnerable groups in the society, and increase their “wage†by collecting “red envelopes†and various expenses. Business owners passively increase wages under the pressure of maintaining social stability.
Since 2005, the increase in the wages of ordinary workers is indeed a fact. The average wage rise should be more than double. The wages of urban residents have also been rising year by year through the method of adjusting wages. The increase during this period is similar to that of ordinary migrant workers. It should be noted that, from 1995 to 2005, China’s wages (especially the wages of ordinary workers) did not rise substantially, which was consistent with the fact that house prices did not rise during the period. It can be seen that there is a highly positive correlation between wages and house prices.
Driven by rising wages, the price increase of agricultural products should be a matter of course, because the increase in workers' wages means that the opportunity cost of farming is increasing. The increase in the cost of agricultural labor will certainly stimulate the price of agricultural products.
The rise in house prices is only one of the important factors for rising food prices, and it is not the only deciding factor. It should be noted that the rise in housing prices coincides with the "Lewis Turning Point" of the labor force, which easily leads to a rapid increase in labor wages.
It makes more sense to analyze domestic price changes in combination with international markets. In the context of the global financial crisis, the occurrence of deflation in the United States and Europe in the next few years should be a high-probability event. Bear market prices in the international market should be expected, which will play a certain role in domestic price increases. Inhibition. From the trend of the PPI of industrial products since May 2010, this trend has been shown. Unlike the CPI, the PPI is declining month by month. If China's price rises substantially under the promotion of wage costs, it may reverse the appreciation of the renminbi and cause the asset price bubble to burst.
From the long-term trend, the rise in housing prices will also lead to a significant drop in the birth rate, which will reduce the supply of labor, and thus make the population ageing. As of 2010, the proportion of the average old-age population in the European Union (the proportion of elderly people over the age of 65 to the total population) has reached 16.7%. Japan's population structure began to turn around in 1990 and entered a period of rapid aging. The most important reason is that industrialization and urbanization have led to a significant increase in the cost of raising children, making people unwilling to support their children, and the trend of “declining children†in society. The changes in China's demographic structure are related to the government's conscious control of population growth. However, with the rapid rise in housing prices, urban and rural residents have begun to show a tendency toward “low birthrateâ€. This is a major impact of high prices on social development.
From the ratio of house prices to income, if housing prices do not fall, the wage increase in the future will be alarming (at least more than 1 times), even in non-central cities. Unless the government popularizes cheap affordable housing on a large scale, housing-driven inflation will continue for a long time.
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