The development opportunity of the pharmaceutical industry in 2011

In 2011, as the starting year of the “Twelfth Five-Year Plan”, a series of new initiatives and changes will continue in 2010, and these will be implemented and implemented. Some analysts pointed out that with the introduction of the 12th Five-Year Plan on biopharmaceuticals, accelerating the reform of the medical service, and the restructuring of the pharmaceutical industry, the pharmaceutical industry has brought a new round of development opportunities.

According to the SFDA Southern Medicine Economic Research Institute, the "National Pharmaceutical Industry Operation Situation and 2011 Medical Economic Forecasts 2010". The director of the institute, Lin Jianning, predicts that the compound annual growth rate of the Chinese pharmaceutical market will reach 20% in the next decade. Among them, China's pharmaceutical industry in 2011 will also have a 23% increase, reaching a scale of 1,545 billion yuan.

Wang Changlin, director of the Institute of Macroeconomic Research at the National Development and Reform Commission’s Institute of Macroeconomics, pointed out at the annual meeting of the China Association of Technology Entrepreneurs on November 20 that from the perspective of domestic development trends, the biopharmaceutical industry should maintain a 20% growth rate over the next decade. There is no problem.

Characteristics of the pharmaceutical industry in 2010

In 2010, the pharmaceutical industry presented three major features: first, mergers and reorganizations were the main theme; secondly, innovation became the direction of the development of pharmaceutical companies; finally, policy orientation made biomedicine more potential.

The pharmaceutical industry continues to grow rapidly

Because China's total health expenditure is still less than 5% of GDP, and there is still a big gap compared to developed countries, the development of the Chinese pharmaceutical industry will continue to remain in the fast lane.

Plus three major positive factors driving medical consumption:

First, the proportion of aging population is expanding. Based on demographic data, it can be clearly deduced that by 2020, the elderly population in China will reach 248 million, and the ageing level will reach 17.17%. By 2050, the total population of older people will exceed 400 million, and the old population The level of advancement to more than 30%. The current use of drugs by the elderly accounts for half of all medications. The accelerating advancement of aging means that the population base with large doses is rapidly expanding.

Secondly, the increase in income promotes the growth of medical expenses. With the increase of people’s income, the average drug use per capita has a marked increase. At the same time, the average drug use per capita of the elderly is significantly higher than that of young people during the accelerated aging process. The level shows a definite upward trend.

Third, the policy effect began to show. The new medical reform policy stimulates the demand for pharmaceutical consumption. The establishment of a rural cooperative medical system has made many rural populations, who were previously unable to see the disease, actively go to hospitals for treatment. The state's investment in funds and the increase in the reimbursement rate of medical expenses for the rural population will make more rural people sick and medically available. At present, the proportion of medical expenditure in China's fiscal expenditure is still low, and there is still room for improvement in the follow-up. The increase in medical expenditure will also leverage the demand for pharmaceutical consumption.

Adjustment: Increased demand due to new essential drug system

The General Office of the State Council promulgated the "Guiding Opinions on Establishing and Regulating the Basic Drug Purchase Mechanism of the Government for Basic Medical and Health Institutions". Analysts pointed out that the promulgation of the "Procurement Mechanism" will be accompanied by the adjustment of the basic drug system and bring about three opportunities for the pharmaceutical industry in 2011.

With the refinement of the compensation mechanism measures and the imminent release of essential drugs, brand generic pharmaceutical companies will bring market expansion and industry growth opportunities. He Pingge, an analyst at Guosen Securities, points out that in the next 3 to 5 years, with the sinking of medical resources, the realization of “national health insurance” ahead of schedule, and the basic drug system entering into a substantive implementation stage since 2011, it will surely shake up the grassroots consumption with huge potential. Market, the industry is expected to continue to maintain rapid growth of 20% to 25%.

Innovation: Biomedicine Takes Off

In the 12th Five-Year Plan for Emerging Industries, the sub-sectors of the biomedical crop biological industry will receive increasing market attention. In 2011, the opportunities for biopharmaceuticals are divided into two categories, i.e., Type II vaccines and biosimilar innovations.

China's vaccine market consists of a class of vaccines and Class II vaccines. Class I vaccines are purchased by the government and are available at a low price. They are provided free of charge by the state for children of school age. Class II vaccines are not included in the national immunity category and are voluntarily selected by consumers and purchased at their own expense. , Higher prices and higher profits.

In November 2010, the three ministries and commissions jointly issued the "Guiding Opinions on Accelerating the Structural Adjustment of the Pharmaceutical Industry," and clearly defined the research and development of genetic engineering drugs and antibody drugs for the prevention and treatment of malignancies, cardio-cerebrovascular diseases and other diseases, and increased the development of new vaccines for infectious diseases. . In the field of biotechnology drugs, breakthroughs have been made in large-scale, high-throughput gene cloning and protein expression, humanization of antibodies, preparation of human antibodies, novel vaccine adjuvants, large-scale cell culture, and protein purification technologies.

Industry insiders pointed out that under the current trend of falling drug prices, innovative products will undoubtedly receive many benefits such as price and approval. This will bring about soaring companies with innovative capabilities, especially those that have developed a new class of drugs at the international frontier. Opportunity.

Integration: never stop

The "Guidance Opinion on Accelerating the Adjustment of the Pharmaceutical Industry Structure" published on October 9 pointed out that the State Council promotes the spirit of mergers and acquisitions of enterprises and encourages competitive enterprises to implement cross-regional and cross-ownership mergers, acquisitions, mergers and reorganizations, and promote resources such as varieties, technologies, and channels. Concentrate on advantageous companies. Through the promotion of superiority and survival of the fittest in market competition, the economies of scale and industrial concentration of enterprises have been significantly improved, and the number of pharmaceutical enterprises has been significantly reduced. The sales revenue of the top 100 pharmaceutical companies accounted for more than 50% of the total industry sales revenue.

This led to industry leading Sinopharm Holdings and Kyushu Express through listing financing. China Resources Pharmaceuticals has strengthened its investment in the pharmaceutical field and the reorganization of Shanghai Pharmaceutical Group. Each of the business giants holds heavy capital, and has expanded with the policy of “big circulation” in healthcare reform. The era of great integration in the domestic pharmaceutical industry has begun.

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