As the Indian government agreed to export 500,000 tons of self-produced sugar on Tuesday to prompt investors to continue selling, prices of raw sugar futures on the ICE sugar market continued to fall this Wednesday.
On the 1st day of the trading day, the price of sugar dropped by 58 points (-2.1%) to close at 26.58 cents/lb. In the 1107 period, the price of sugar also fell by 60 points (-2.4%) and closed at 24.65 cents/lb.
Some traders indicated that while India’s agreement to export 500,000 tons of self-produced sugar is good for alleviating the tight supply of sugar in the world, it also exerted great pressure on the operation of sugar prices. Secondly, Thailand’s sugar production exceeded expectations. The pressure on the sugar market has also created pressure on the market because of the political crisis in debt-ridden Portugal that will force the government to seek help from the international community, which in turn will lead to pressure on the soft goods market including sugar. As the market expects that the euro zone may raise interest rates, the euro’s depreciation against the US dollar is limited.
However, the uncertainties of Brazil's production prospects still form a certain support for the sugar market. Shortly afterwards, the Brazilian Central-Southern region will be opened and the market will closely follow Brazil's production.
Analysts pointed out that the current issue is that the Indian government will not increase its export of self-produced sugar in the coming months after agreeing to export 500,000 tons of self-produced sugar on Tuesday. A senior analyst at a Western trading company stated that it is possible that India will continue to export its own sugar, but the number of exports will depend on the amount of sugar produced during the 10-11 years of sugar production.
Some punters on Tuesday once expected that India is unlikely to agree to export 500,000 tons of self-produced sugar and buy it in the sugar market. Eventually, the decline in the sugar market was reduced. However, judging from the current situation, this year, India produced sugar. The export volume may not be less than 1.5 million tons. If the prospects for production are confirmed, the next step the Indian government will agree to increase the amount of sugar exports.
According to the current forecast, it is estimated that India will produce 24,500-25 million tons of sugar during the 10-11 years of sugar production, and its sugar consumption is still only at the level of 22.5 million tons due to high sugar prices. It said that the output will be at least 2 million tons more than the consumption, which will create conditions for India to export 1.5 million tons of self-produced sugar.
In addition, the price of sugar futures in London's sugar market continued to fall on the same day as India agreed to export 500,000 tons of self-produced sugar and Thai sugar production exceeded expectations. At the close of the trading day, the price of sugar fell by approximately $12.50/ton (-1.8%) to close at $687.90/ton; the price of sugar in the 1108 period also fell by $12.40/ton (-1.9%) to close at $653.60/ton. .
The closing prices of the two major international sugar markets were as follows (close price unit: ICE Sugar Market: US cents/lb; LIFFE Sugar Market: USD/ton):
ICE sugar market volatility fluctuation range LIFFE sugar market ups and downs 1105 26.58-0.58 26.50-27.50 1105 687.90-12.50
1107 24.65-0.60 24.55-25.54 1108 653.60-12.40
On the 1st day of the trading day, the price of sugar dropped by 58 points (-2.1%) to close at 26.58 cents/lb. In the 1107 period, the price of sugar also fell by 60 points (-2.4%) and closed at 24.65 cents/lb.
Some traders indicated that while India’s agreement to export 500,000 tons of self-produced sugar is good for alleviating the tight supply of sugar in the world, it also exerted great pressure on the operation of sugar prices. Secondly, Thailand’s sugar production exceeded expectations. The pressure on the sugar market has also created pressure on the market because of the political crisis in debt-ridden Portugal that will force the government to seek help from the international community, which in turn will lead to pressure on the soft goods market including sugar. As the market expects that the euro zone may raise interest rates, the euro’s depreciation against the US dollar is limited.
However, the uncertainties of Brazil's production prospects still form a certain support for the sugar market. Shortly afterwards, the Brazilian Central-Southern region will be opened and the market will closely follow Brazil's production.
Analysts pointed out that the current issue is that the Indian government will not increase its export of self-produced sugar in the coming months after agreeing to export 500,000 tons of self-produced sugar on Tuesday. A senior analyst at a Western trading company stated that it is possible that India will continue to export its own sugar, but the number of exports will depend on the amount of sugar produced during the 10-11 years of sugar production.
Some punters on Tuesday once expected that India is unlikely to agree to export 500,000 tons of self-produced sugar and buy it in the sugar market. Eventually, the decline in the sugar market was reduced. However, judging from the current situation, this year, India produced sugar. The export volume may not be less than 1.5 million tons. If the prospects for production are confirmed, the next step the Indian government will agree to increase the amount of sugar exports.
According to the current forecast, it is estimated that India will produce 24,500-25 million tons of sugar during the 10-11 years of sugar production, and its sugar consumption is still only at the level of 22.5 million tons due to high sugar prices. It said that the output will be at least 2 million tons more than the consumption, which will create conditions for India to export 1.5 million tons of self-produced sugar.
In addition, the price of sugar futures in London's sugar market continued to fall on the same day as India agreed to export 500,000 tons of self-produced sugar and Thai sugar production exceeded expectations. At the close of the trading day, the price of sugar fell by approximately $12.50/ton (-1.8%) to close at $687.90/ton; the price of sugar in the 1108 period also fell by $12.40/ton (-1.9%) to close at $653.60/ton. .
The closing prices of the two major international sugar markets were as follows (close price unit: ICE Sugar Market: US cents/lb; LIFFE Sugar Market: USD/ton):
ICE sugar market volatility fluctuation range LIFFE sugar market ups and downs 1105 26.58-0.58 26.50-27.50 1105 687.90-12.50
1107 24.65-0.60 24.55-25.54 1108 653.60-12.40
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