Global food prices will rise again in 2011, and the "grain battle" may again be staged

According to the "Japan Agricultural News" report, in December 2010, food prices in the Chicago grain market hit a new high since the global food crisis in the fall of 2008. One bushel of corn (about 25 kilograms) exceeds six dollars, one bushel of wheat (about 27 kilograms) lingers between 7.5-8 dollars, and one bushel of soybeans exceeds thirteen dollars, three times, 2.5 times, and two times, respectively, in 2005. The direct reason is that Russia's drought in August 2010 caused a serious reduction in wheat production. Russia has banned grain exports until the end of June 2011. Affected by this, the world's feedstuffs have shifted to U.S. corn, and U.S. corn production has been reduced due to heavy rains. At the same time, U.S. domestic demand for carbon reduction has increased the demand for corn-based bioethanol. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has announced that it will increase corn production to August 2011. Inventory can only meet the needs of the world for 0.7 months. Even worse is the fact that Australia, a wheat-exporting country, has reduced its consumption of wheat by 50% due to the December 2010 floods.

The global food warfare that took place in 2007-2008 was caused by the reduction in grain production in Australia and Europe due to climatic reasons. Countries rushed to restrict their domestic grain exports, and speculative funds flowed to the grain futures market, causing food prices to hit new highs. Some countries even Therefore, riots occurred. Japanese agricultural experts said that the current floods and droughts in the world have exceeded the scope of climate anomalies and will become the norm in the future. Considering the shortage of global water resources and the low fertility of the land, it is not easy to maintain grain production in the future. Due to the economic development and population increase in emerging countries such as India and China, the demand for food is still increasing. Therefore, the current food prices cannot be considered as high and can only be considered as a basic price. Insufficient food will surely lead countries to restrict food exports. At the same time, the speculative funds that have been squeezed out of the US low interest rate policy will also flow into the grain market. Global food prices will rise again in 2011, and the “food battle” may be staged again.

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