The recent exceptionally frequent global climate has brought further tensions in the supply of agricultural products. Industry insiders expect that prices of agricultural products will continue to rise in the short term.
Abnormal climate has always been the biggest variable in agricultural production, and abnormal weather phenomena have recently appeared frequently, which has caused market concerns. For example, the severe drought that has not been encountered in Shandong for 50 years, the freezing rain in the south, the mysterious death of animals in the world due to abnormal weather, and the flooding caused by Australia's La Nina phenomenon have caused the already tight supply of domestic and foreign food markets, resulting in relatively large gains. .
According to the commercial forecast monitoring issued by the Ministry of Commerce on the 11th, the prices of edible agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce from January 3 to January 9 rose slightly from the previous week, which was the third consecutive week of slight increase. Specifically, the rain, snow, and freezing weather affected the production and transportation of vegetables in some regions. Last week, the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables rose by 6.2%. Prices of green pepper, bitter gourd, beans, rapeseed, eggplant, cucumber, and lettuce increased by more than 10%. Food and edible oil retail prices continued to rise, with rice and flour prices rising by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while soyoil, peanut oil and rapeseed oil prices rose by 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
In the international market, in addition to affecting international coal trade, the influence of floods in Australia is also on the rise of international agricultural products. The sharp reduction in cotton and sugar production will cause international prices to continue to rise.
The ANZ report stated that the full impact of the flood on Queensland’s cotton production is still difficult to estimate. However, it is expected that the reduction in cotton production caused by floods will exceed 100,000 tons, which is equivalent to more than 10% of the official estimate. In addition, about 20% of sugar cane has not yet been harvested at the end of the pre-Christmas harvest season, resulting in a 20% reduction in raw sugar production in the fiscal year ending June 30, which is approximately 3.6 million tons, which in turn causes a corresponding reduction in raw sugar exports.
Under the influence of La Niña, palm oil supply in Southeast Asia has also been strongly concerned by all parties in the market. According to the latest report from Hong Leong Investment Bank, weather and supply problems may keep palm oil prices from rising in the first quarter of this year. At present, the Malaysian palm oil price is the highest level since March 2008 and is around RM 4,000.
The report predicts that competition for corn and soybean arable land in the United States will intensify, and that higher maize prices may encourage farmers to be more willing to grow corn, which may lead to further global oilseed and vegetable oil supply shortages. More and more farmers will broadcast corn, which will eventually lead to a rise in the price of beans, which in turn will drive the price of CPO. Taking into account the slowing pace of Indonesia's oil palm land expansion, this may hurt palm oil production growth and thus support prices. The average palm oil price in the first quarter of this year is expected to be RM3,200.
In addition, the global economic recovery is still the focus of investors' attention on rising demand for commodities. The Guoan An Fund Investment Research Team believes that with the recovery of overseas economies exceeding expectations and the continuation of the US monetary easing policy, this year's overseas bulk agricultural product prices are likely to have a bull market, and will push the domestic agricultural product price center to continue upwards. It is expected that commodity prices such as agricultural products will continue to increase. Will make new highs.
Abnormal climate has always been the biggest variable in agricultural production, and abnormal weather phenomena have recently appeared frequently, which has caused market concerns. For example, the severe drought that has not been encountered in Shandong for 50 years, the freezing rain in the south, the mysterious death of animals in the world due to abnormal weather, and the flooding caused by Australia's La Nina phenomenon have caused the already tight supply of domestic and foreign food markets, resulting in relatively large gains. .
According to the commercial forecast monitoring issued by the Ministry of Commerce on the 11th, the prices of edible agricultural products monitored by the Ministry of Commerce from January 3 to January 9 rose slightly from the previous week, which was the third consecutive week of slight increase. Specifically, the rain, snow, and freezing weather affected the production and transportation of vegetables in some regions. Last week, the average wholesale price of 18 kinds of vegetables rose by 6.2%. Prices of green pepper, bitter gourd, beans, rapeseed, eggplant, cucumber, and lettuce increased by more than 10%. Food and edible oil retail prices continued to rise, with rice and flour prices rising by 0.4% and 0.2% respectively, while soyoil, peanut oil and rapeseed oil prices rose by 0.3%, 0.2% and 0.1% respectively.
In the international market, in addition to affecting international coal trade, the influence of floods in Australia is also on the rise of international agricultural products. The sharp reduction in cotton and sugar production will cause international prices to continue to rise.
The ANZ report stated that the full impact of the flood on Queensland’s cotton production is still difficult to estimate. However, it is expected that the reduction in cotton production caused by floods will exceed 100,000 tons, which is equivalent to more than 10% of the official estimate. In addition, about 20% of sugar cane has not yet been harvested at the end of the pre-Christmas harvest season, resulting in a 20% reduction in raw sugar production in the fiscal year ending June 30, which is approximately 3.6 million tons, which in turn causes a corresponding reduction in raw sugar exports.
Under the influence of La Niña, palm oil supply in Southeast Asia has also been strongly concerned by all parties in the market. According to the latest report from Hong Leong Investment Bank, weather and supply problems may keep palm oil prices from rising in the first quarter of this year. At present, the Malaysian palm oil price is the highest level since March 2008 and is around RM 4,000.
The report predicts that competition for corn and soybean arable land in the United States will intensify, and that higher maize prices may encourage farmers to be more willing to grow corn, which may lead to further global oilseed and vegetable oil supply shortages. More and more farmers will broadcast corn, which will eventually lead to a rise in the price of beans, which in turn will drive the price of CPO. Taking into account the slowing pace of Indonesia's oil palm land expansion, this may hurt palm oil production growth and thus support prices. The average palm oil price in the first quarter of this year is expected to be RM3,200.
In addition, the global economic recovery is still the focus of investors' attention on rising demand for commodities. The Guoan An Fund Investment Research Team believes that with the recovery of overseas economies exceeding expectations and the continuation of the US monetary easing policy, this year's overseas bulk agricultural product prices are likely to have a bull market, and will push the domestic agricultural product price center to continue upwards. It is expected that commodity prices such as agricultural products will continue to increase. Will make new highs.
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