Unconsciously, I have been investing in industry for more than two years. There are many experiences and lessons, and the latter is more memorable. Fortunately, ZTE has created a tolerant growth environment for me. In the actual battle, I also came to the Shenzhen spirit of “encouraging innovation and tolerance failureâ€. Investment is like playing chess. After the game is as important as the mid-term examination. Although the level of the masters of the nine segments is reflected in the flash of the key moments, it is believed that the intuition comes from a lot of conscious or unconscious thinking and reflection. If I wait for the first stage, I should consciously repeat more and more.
This time, I hope to make a summary of my investment experience with my teammates over the past two years. Now it should be the most popular era in the medical device industry . The "515 congestion" of the Hongqiao National Convention and Exhibition Center is proof. The financing record of the primary market has been continuously refreshed, and the secondary market has created one after another limit of the daily limit. The bubble is also one of the manifestations of the industry's prosperity, just as beer without bubbles is not fresh. But in fact, the true success of the company is not how many bookmakers are willing to push your stock, not how many venture capital joint bids, but how many users are willing to buy your products, how many dealers are willing to sell your products, How many outstanding people are rushing to join your team. It’s like the stars of tomorrow that are popular in the show, and today they don’t know where to go. Many successful masters of the popular airport were finally shot on the beach by their fellow citizens who were more accented. Those who can't stand the test of time are, after all, still strong.
So the bad news is that there are very few world-class companies in our true sense. The good news is that many entrepreneurs I met have a mission. The industrial investment that I understand is such a process: judging the general trend, refining specific opportunities, and then discovering entrepreneurs and enterprises that have the ability to turn potential energy into kinetic energy, and ultimately help them achieve their dreams.
First, the big background
1. The economy has entered a new normal, and industrial upgrading has to be done. The cost of labor is constantly improving, and the price advantage of export is weakening. It is very difficult to earn the first pot of gold by following the innovation. It is even harder to make money by relying on the cottage. It is even harder to make money by labor-intensive. . In the past three years, many of my former suppliers have closed down, doing power, doing sheet metal, and doing molds – they are actually working hard. Therefore, the current drive for industrial upgrading is no longer the mission of a good entrepreneur, but a sense of crisis for all entrepreneurs. I once said to an official in a development zone in the Pearl River Delta: Three-to-one companies have moved to Malaysia, Vietnam and the Philippines. It is not a disaster. It is a disaster for their empty factories to create new enterprises with high added value. We are still trying to study How to relocate them from Vietnam is the biggest disaster. He is deeply convinced.
2. Changes in population institutions and non-linear consumption upgrades. In the past three decades, in the developed countries of Europe and the United States, the consumption concept of the three generations of grandparents and grandchildren has evolved linearly from classic cars to modern cars to electric vehicles. In China, the three generations of the grandchildren's consumption concept is a nonlinear jump from the bicycle-Santana-Tesla-UAV. There is no market like diversification, fragmentation and dramatic change like China. From urban to rural areas, coastal to inland, from 50 to 90... So when designing products, we must pay attention to the variability of the target market. For example, there are now a lot of products and services for aging-health management. In theory, the generation that has been reformed and opened up has just entered retirement age, and there is both strength and demand for paying for health. But is this the case? It takes time to prove. I take the trouble to remind the product manager (often the entrepreneur himself): after 40, 50, 60, after he/she is 60 years old, the demand for health management may be the same, but the consumption habits are completely different. The taste of the Teresa Teng era to design the records of the TFboys era is a waste of feelings and money. A very interesting case is that ZTEVC invested in a villa project for high-end vacations. It is found that the main consumer power is not the most purchasing power after 50/60, but after 90, the reason is actually not to analyze me. You look at friends of different ages. The difference in the circle of friends will be known.
3. Medical reform has entered a new phase. I will not list the previous speeches of the Prime Minister and so many documents issued by the National Development and Reform Commission, the Health Planning Commission and the Food and Drug Administration. In short, the last round of medical reform based on elite top-level design is basically a mess. This time, the biggest idea of ​​the reform promoted by Premier Li Keqiang is to loosen and decentralize. I would like to mention a few directions that I think will be in the future: First, liberate doctors. Since the doctor is the scarcest resource, respecting his value, he is upright to let him get a high salary, enjoy a high social status, and allow him to go to his clinic in the hospital in the afternoon. Second, private capital operates doctors. Since the public can't afford so many hospitals, they will give more inclined policies to allow private capital to enter, and strengthen management rather than squandering food. Third, the county hospital capacity has improved. I used to go to the provincial capital in the past, and now I stay in the county. A large number of prestigious medical students graduated from the head of the hospital and could not enter the affiliated hospital. If the county hospital can have high income, it can be attractive to the director several years earlier. Fourth, the general practitioner, the last round of medical reform has almost destroyed the group of rural doctors. This round should not only rebuild the village medical system, but also improve their overall quality. In urban communities, public community hospitals undertake public health services, and private clinics serve high-end people. The fifth is the reduction in transaction costs, discounts instead of rebates, and more and more businesses are talking on the desktop. To achieve the above points, we must touch the existing pattern and interests, but under the general trend, it will not be too long. Many people disagree with the cancellation of drug addiction, and believe that the benefits of the floating on the water can not solve the problem. I want to ask: Is it really a big impact to increase the stamp duty of 2 points? Why is the response so big?
4. The capital market is active. From VC to PE, from small and medium-sized board to the GEM, from the New Third Board to the upcoming innovation board, the valuation and transaction volume of the medical sector have reached new highs. At present, the two medical device companies with the largest domestic sales are listed overseas, and the domestic companies with the highest market value have chosen the A-shares and the leap. Therefore, the high valuation of A-shares has a bubble in it - some people speculate on the market value, some people secretly cash in the road - but more ambitious long-sleeved dancers, using funds from the Chinese capital market on a global scale, Find the best technology, recruit the best talents, and build the best base, because, compared to domestic and foreign counterparts, they have more bullets in their hands. This gives Chinese companies a huge opportunity to come up later. Why are we so much behind the international giants? Because they do the same thing, they started 30 years, 50 years, or even 100 years before us! In the past 30 years, we have been struggling to catch up behind the ass, spending several times the effort to smash the window paper that people have already seen, and they have to be criticized for "takenism." Now, while we should seize the historical opportunity and work harder, we can implement the "buy-seeking" rationally and legally, and let the excellent human intellectual property achievements be used by the vast number of Chinese customers.
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